A Gental Tide, Not A Tsunami

May 14, 2024

A Gental Tide, Not A Tsunami

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The phrase of a “Silver Tsunami” has been tossed around recently and it refers to the idea that a lot of baby boomers are going to move or downsize all at once.  The fear is that a sudden influx of homes for sale from seniors would have a huge impact on housing creating an even larger inventory of resale homes and competition for the smaller ones.  It would throw off the balance of supply and demand even more than what we are currently seeing, and would definitely impact home prices once again.

However, there are some faults to this logic.

  • Plenty of baby boomers don’t plan on moving at all.
  • More than half of adults age 65 and older want to stay in their homes and age in place.
  • Many are making the decision to modify their homes as their needs change.
  • Baby boomers that do want to move will do so over a longer period of time.

When updating existing homes might not work, many boomers may buy a second home in another state or climate and keep their original homes as an investment to fuel generational wealth for their families. 

Demographics are never a tsunami.  The baby boomer generation is almost two decades of births.  That means they’re going to take about two decades to work their way through.  Baby boomers will move slowly over a much longer period of time, so the forecast of a “tsunami” will be more like a “gentle tide.”  There will most likely be a gradual exit of 9.2 million boomers by 2035! 

Article courtesy of SRES publication in April, 2024

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585

Homes Sold 1999 – 2022

45

Average sales per year

$110,116,000

Total sales volume 1999-2022

$5,034,318

Average sales volume per year